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The literature on policy success and failure does not capture policies that may be too successful, as well as "too much" and/or "too soon" patterns of policy. To bridge this gap, this conceptual article relies on one of the most r...
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The literature on policy success and failure does not capture policies that may be too successful, as well as "too much" and/or "too soon" patterns of policy. To bridge this gap, this conceptual article relies on one of the most robust findings in the psychology of judgement, namely that many people are overconfident, prone to place too much faith in their intuitions. Based on this premise, the analytical framework advanced here revolves around two key dimensions of policy overreaction: (i) the effects of positive and negative events, and (ii) the effects of overestimation and accurate estimation of information. Based on these dimensions, the article identifies and illustrates four distinct modes of policy overreaction that reflect differences in the nature of implemented policy. It argues that the policy tools menu utilised in each mode of policy overreaction is dominated by unique mechanisms for changing or coordinating behaviour, which, once established, produce excessive - objective and/or perceived - social costs.
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Abstract Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less a...
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Abstract Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less attention to meso-level factors. To bridge this gap, this article develops a verbal model focusing on the collapse of mechanisms that sustain mythical state institutions as drivers of such dynamics. A mythical institution enjoys a reputation for power and influence among the public based on widespread and persistent stereotypical beliefs that embody a collectivity’s sense of origin and tradition, high performance and stability, and/or vision and mission. The argument advanced here is that nonlinear political dynamics may occur when the collapse of such mechanisms reflects on the unquestioned legitimacy that the mythical state institution enjoys, creating massive embarrassment for the regime because its mythical institution’s status requires government intervention to prevent believers from “fleeing” and/or revolting. This, in turn, undermines or debunks this institution’s myth, thereby generating high levels of anxiety, fear, anger, or other (mixes of) emotions. Which emotional process dominates depends on which reaction is stronger at the moment in question. When the level reaches an affective tipping point, citizens begin to update their evaluations and consider new information. This leads to behavioral convergence (e.g., mass protest, mass emigration, violence), which is in turn accelerated when the regime’s counter-response is publicly perceived as ineffective, thus highlighting the irreversibility of this process. This argument is illustrated herein by examining the 1989 collapse of East Germany’s emigration restrictions system.
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In recent years, there has been remarkable progress in our understanding of policy persistence, on the one hand, and of the psychological phenomenon of underreaction, on the other. Surprisingly, there has been no attempt to use ro...
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In recent years, there has been remarkable progress in our understanding of policy persistence, on the one hand, and of the psychological phenomenon of underreaction, on the other. Surprisingly, there has been no attempt to use robust findings, derived from these efforts, in order to understand the nuances of policy underreaction. Policy underreaction refers to systematically slow and/or insufficient response by policymakers to increased risk or opportunity, or no response at all. This article tries to give the concept of policy underreaction a robust analytical identity by integrating cognitive, social, psychological and emotional variables in the explanation of policy underreaction and by introducing a variation across different types of contextual sources of policy persistence as explanatory variables of this phenomenon. It develops an analytical framework that revolves around two key elements of decision making in situations of risk unfolding over time: (1) policymakers' underestimation and accurate estimation of increased risks and (2) intra- and extra-organizational sources of policy persistence. Based on these dimensions, the article identifies and illustrates four distinct modes of policy underreaction which reflect differences in the nature of implemented policy.
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This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Municipal Emergency Consultation project in eight Israeli local authorities. The initiative centres on the appointment of independent emergency preparedness consultants entrusted with ...
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This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Municipal Emergency Consultation project in eight Israeli local authorities. The initiative centres on the appointment of independent emergency preparedness consultants entrusted with tailoring an emergency preparedness package to suit the specific needs of each locality. Regarding emergency preparedness improvements, in all of the municipalities examined, a concept of municipal emergency operation was consolidated and the derived emergency plan tested. Emergency work processes were structured and service-level agreements reached between municipality departments. Where necessary, a-linear patterns of municipal functioning in an emergency were established. Concerning a ‘spillover’ of emergency preparedness improvements into routine operations, and a ‘spillover’ of routine management improvements into local emergency preparedness, two municipalities near Gaza, which typically function in an emergency routine, saw a significant ‘spillover’ of emergency preparedness into routine functioning. In other localities, local managers chose to improve a number of municipal structures and procedures in times of routine functioning, which are also related to the functioning of the municipality during an emergency.
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Policy problems and solutions are frequently loaded with moral, emotional and cost-effectiveness components as well as with other ideational and symbolic elements in order to provide them with, or deprive them of, significance. Sk...
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Policy problems and solutions are frequently loaded with moral, emotional and cost-effectiveness components as well as with other ideational and symbolic elements in order to provide them with, or deprive them of, significance. Skillful policy entrepreneurs are key actors in this valuation process which results in policy problems and solutions becoming valued, overvalued or undervalued. Drawing on insights from the sociology of valuation, this article distinguishes between four types of policy entrepreneurs - defined by the particular strategies they pursue - that may be involved in this process: norm entrepreneurs, reputation entrepreneurs, meaning entrepreneurs and standards and performance metrics entrepreneurs. The article elaborates on the role of these actors in the policy valuation process and the interactive nature of their activities. It thereafter illustrates their activities by elaborating on the valuation strategies pursued by the Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies, which led several European governments to provide financial support for the Carbon Disclosure Project.
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ABSTRACT This article describes the efforts made by the Israeli government to contain the spread of COVID-19, which were implemented amidst a constitutional crisis and a yearlong electoral impasse, under the leadership of Prime Mi...
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ABSTRACT This article describes the efforts made by the Israeli government to contain the spread of COVID-19, which were implemented amidst a constitutional crisis and a yearlong electoral impasse, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was awaiting a trial for charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust. It thereafter draws on the disproportionate policy perspective to ascertain the ideas and sensitivities that placed key policy responses on trajectories which prioritized differential policy responses over general, nation-wide solutions (and vice versa), even though data in the public domain supported the selection of opposing policy solutions on epidemiological or social welfare grounds. The article also gauges the consequences and implications of the policy choices made in the fight against COVID-19 for the disproportionate policy perspective. It argues that Prime Minister Netanyahu employed disproportionate policy responses both at the rhetorical level and on the ground in the fight against COVID-19; that during the crisis, Netanyahu enjoyed wide political leeway to employ disproportionate policy responses, and the general public exhibited a willingness to tolerate this; and (iii) that ascertaining the occurrence of disproportionate policy responses is not solely a matter of perception.
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Abstract What reputational dividends in the media, if any, do federal agencies reap from collaboration with a highly reputable agency, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)? Utilizing a dataset covering 30 U.S. fede...
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Abstract What reputational dividends in the media, if any, do federal agencies reap from collaboration with a highly reputable agency, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)? Utilizing a dataset covering 30 U.S. federal agencies over a period of 34 years (1980–2013), we estimate the short and long‐term reputational effects of interagency collaboration. Collaboration is measured by the number of memorandums of understanding in effect between each agency and the FDA, while agency reputation in the media is assessed using an automated measure of media‐coverage valence (positive/negative tone) for each agency‐year. To account for potential reverse and reciprocal causality, we utilize cross‐lagged fixed‐effects models. We find evidence of moderate rises in reputation in the media due to increased collaboration with the FDA. These effects persist significantly for 2 years following the end of the collaboration, before declining to null after 4 years. Employing similar analyses, we furthermore estimate reverse causality—of reputation in the media on the level of consequent collaboration—finding no evidence of such effects.
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The fight to curb the spread of COVID-19 underscores the central role that governments play in many policy areas, including public health, and the need to understand the reasons for observed differences in governance responses to ...
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The fight to curb the spread of COVID-19 underscores the central role that governments play in many policy areas, including public health, and the need to understand the reasons for observed differences in governance responses to the pandemic in different countries and jurisdictions. Drawing on secondary sources and media interviews with prime minister and ministers, the paper demonstrates how examination of a combination of psychological, institutional, and strategic factors operating in policy and governance arenas helps explain the policy and governance choices different governments made in their fight against COVID-19. Psychological factors include elite panic and limited government attention spans while institutional factors include the level of government effectiveness, their degree of freedom to manouevre, levels of social trust, the existence of separate ministries of health and health ministers with a medical background, the extent to which ruling parties are well established, state governors’ actual power vis-à-vis the federal government, as well as a legacy of generous social policy and existent universalistic social programs. Strategic factors include political considerations underlying policy and governance choices when elected executives face deep uncertainty. Focusing on these factors and arenas helps state-centric governance theory produce explanations rather than describe patterns of policy-making.
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摘要 :
The fight to curb the spread of COVID-19 underscores the central role that governments play in many policy areas, including public health, and the need to understand the reasons for observed differences in governance responses to ...
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The fight to curb the spread of COVID-19 underscores the central role that governments play in many policy areas, including public health, and the need to understand the reasons for observed differences in governance responses to the pandemic in different countries and jurisdictions. Drawing on secondary sources and media interviews with prime minister and ministers, the paper demonstrates how examination of a combination of psychological, institutional, and strategic factors operating in policy and governance arenas helps explain the policy and governance choices different governments made in their fight against COVID-19. Psychological factors include elite panic and limited government attention spans while institutional factors include the level of government effectiveness, their degree of freedom to manouevre, levels of social trust, the existence of separate ministries of health and health ministers with a medical background, the extent to which ruling parties are well established, state governors’ actual power vis-à-vis the federal government, as well as a legacy of generous social policy and existent universalistic social programs. Strategic factors include political considerations underlying policy and governance choices when elected executives face deep uncertainty. Focusing on these factors and arenas helps state-centric governance theory produce explanations rather than describe patterns of policy-making.
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